My Investing Journey with Passive Income, Stocks, and Cryptocurrencies!

Category: Bonds Page 1 of 4

Correlations in my Portfolio

I decided to do a correlation analysis on my ENTIRE PORTFOLIO of stocks (and some ETF’s). In case you don’t already know CORRELATION measures the possible relationship between two items, in this case their price movements. Keep in mind, correlation isn’t causation and there could be a 3rd (or even more variables) that are influencing these movements.

Also, note, CORRELATION changes over time, it doesn’t stay the same from one week to the next, or in the case of extremely volatile markets, correlations may diverge quickly. In addition, correlation doesn’t tell you anything about the magnitude at which one stock would follow another. Just because one stock goes up 20%, the other will not necessarily follow.

I took the Year to Data data from finance.yahoo and exported into Google Sheets. I then ran correlations using FUNCTIONS, putting the values into the TABLE shown below.

Here is a link to the pdf

Stocks with NO CORRELATION to other stocks

The first thing I noticed was there are some stocks that share no strong correlation with other stocks. Namely, Marten Transportation, Allison Transmissions, Teradyne, Mindmed, and Virgin Galactic. Honestly, I expected Mindmed to be disconnected due to the small size of the stock and the extreme volatile nature of price action. Likewise, Virgin Galactic is similar in behavior, being a company that has yet to generate any revenues, profits, and is a high beta stock. What are the surprises? I fully expected Marten would be somewhat correlated to the Russell 2000, companies of similar market cap, or SAIA (another trucking stock I own). However, this turns out not to be the case. Teradyne is another surprise; I wrongfully assumed this stock would have correlation with other tech stocks in my portfolio. It shows no strong correlation with any other stock in my portfolio.

Are any stocks correlated with TLT?

Seeing as how TLT is one of the few things with a history of negative correlation with the stock market, I was interested to see if anything might follow TLT closely?

One of the most interesting things in the data set is how Chewy shares the most correlation with TLT, a value of .690, Gold is the 2nd highest at .490.

A possible explanation? Last year, Chewy was seen as a stay at home stock, safer from the pandemic exposure. Since the beginning of the year and the opening up trade, Chewy has slid a bit. It appears, there is a small directional movement with TLT, acting as a FEAR trade. This is the only possible explanation I can offer.

On the other hand, look at my REGIONAL BANK, Citizen’s Financial Group; it shows a negative correlation of -.765. One plausible explanation-as yields drop, the price of TLT increases, and Bank stocks inversely drop. It’s assumed banks make more money if interest rates are higher. One might infer that TLT and CFG (or another regional bank stock) may act as a hedge on the other. I know some people like to dabble in trading pairs and this evidence could be promising to do that (outside of my realm).

What about INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE?

IPAC is the only pure international play I have in my portfolio; exposure mostly to Japan and Australia. .646 with ITOT or the Total Stock Market ETF, .786 with IWM (Russell 2000). This does show that this particular ETF is not as correlated as it has been in the past, so, offering another layer of diversification with the Broad Market.

UBER AND PINTEREST

Uber and Pins seem to be in their own world, the only stocks with somewhat closer correlation with one another. Both big growth stocks, both more speculative and volatile.

Netflix seems to be in a class by itself as well, while it does share some relationship with PINS (.755), it shows no signs of strong correlation with anything.

Gold?

Gold (IAU) and Kirkland Lake (Gold Miner) are closely correlated at .911 as expected. IAU is not closely correlated to the Broader market or The Russell 2000 Index. On the other hand, I did notice there seems to be a somewhat negative correlation to the HOSPITALITY industry. -.656 with Hyatt, -.573 with Ryman Hospitality Properties, -.401 with Xenia Hotels. I currently don’t have much of an answer why gold and the hospitality industry would be negatively correlated. I am not seeing any correlation between inflation fears and gold price at the moment, so it must be something other than inflation/price worries. However, with this data, trading pairs of IAU and a hotel stock might be something someone could play around with? Looking back over the data, I do notice that TLT and the hospitality sector seems to have a very negative correlation as well. Perhaps we are back to the opening up trade again, things like Gold and TLT represent FEAR and the hospitality industry represents SAFE, so they are trading opposite at the moment.

OIL?

I was quite anxious to see if my XLE, oil/energy ETF would have strong correlation with anything other than the broad market. The findings:

The strongest correlation is with my bank stock. Once again, maybe oil and the bank stock are moving in tandem due to interest rate and inflation concerns? I expected it to be correlated somewhat with Eastman Chemicals (.885) as it is an industrial as well.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

This was a fun project. I learned some things I didn’t know about my portfolio, such as correlations existing that I wouldn’t have thought existed. Part of the reason I did this is because I still want to trim my portfolio down. If I have a bunch of correlated stocks, one of them might make a good prospect for being cut from the portfolio. In the future I plan to do a shorter time span correlation analysis to see how the numbers are changing in the last month. We must keep in mind Correlation is not a static number, it changes day to day, environment to environment. Once again, it says nothing about the magnitude of gains or losses. So new data must be taken in and changes made from there.

FED Treasury Securities vs. ITOT price action YTD

In this post, I would like to cover the relationship between the FED’s buying of Treasury Securities and the price of a Total Market ETF.

I chose to use ITOT as my Total Market ETF, as the data was readily available from Yahoo Finance and it’s my favorite Total Market ETF.

I only used data from this year 2021. Later on I will increase the data points to expand back to 2020.

Here is a graph I did of ITOT’s adjusted close vs Total Treasury Securities (in billons of dollars) owned by the FED. Adjusted close was used as it takes into account things like splits, dividends, etc.

The Linear Regression trendline is showing a Coefficient of Determination of .851. This is saying that there is a strong relationship possibly existing between Treasury securities on the FED’s balance sheet and the price of ITOT. To the point-this regression model accounts for 85% of the variability in price. So, as shown, most of the data points are hovered around the trend line:

However, let’s take a look at the precursor data.

Here is the monthly buying of Treasury Securities by the FED. Please note that June 2021 has more than June or July of 2020. This indicates the FED has NOT slowed its buying of Treasury Securities, and expanding its balance sheet.

March and April go off-scale, as they are the outliers here (Immediately after the COVID-19 crisis began). The key here is to determine if the FED is slowing their buying and at what rate. Please note these numbers are pulled directly from the Federal Reserves website. Picture of source below.

Here is the DATA I used from the FED Reserve website, as you can see, essentially a line straight up, showing the rate at which its balance sheet is increasing:

This data is released every seven days.

Here is a youtube video I did also showing the trend in the price of TLT. It is currently up over 6% in the last few months. I personally believe this price action is not only do to the lofty valuations in the stock market, but also the reduced supply from the FED’s buying.

My prediction based on this data is as long as the FED expands its balance sheet with Treasury Securities buying, yields will trend lower and most likely, the price of ITOT will continue to grow.

What is most important here is the RATE at which the FED grows its balance sheet. Last month was over 90 billon dollars worth of Securities. If this slows, then it is very possible we will see a market correction.

BONDS at MAX BEARISH MOMENT

I’ve recently started adding more bond funds to my portfolio. I haven’t done this in about two years now.

This goes against what everyone is saying, it’s assumed both inflation and interest rates go higher from here. Many believe that since the interest rates are already so low, that the upside on bond funds is seriously capped.

However, a few things:

1)The FED is still buying over 80 billion Treasuries a month and has committed to doing this. This will drive interest rates down if it continues at the same pace. My prediction is the FED continues to buy more until it owns an even larger percentage of the Treasuries market (reducing supply).

2)The 10 year is at 1.45% as of today, it can still fall back under 1% and lower. Keep in mind the low last year was around 0.5% I believe people are wrongly discounting that this can’t happen from here.

3)Intermediate and Long-term Treasuries have a NEGATIVE correlation to the stock market. They offer protection and cushion to the OVERALL PORTFOLIO performance.


SO WHAT DID I DO?

I started a new position in TLT. As far as bonds go, this is of course the most risky move, as it is the long-term duration and most sensitive to interest rate rises. On the other hand, it’s the one that stands to earn the most if interest rates fall again. I believe they will.

Just a quick mention, I bought TLT back in December of 2018 and rode it for some INCREDIBLE gains all the way until the end of 2019. Remember this is where the FED tried to raise rates but it caused the market to correct and they were forced the other direction.

My prediction is that something similar will happen over the next year or rates will go LOWER from here. I have no way of knowing for sure, but I suspect some of the inflation we are currently seeing is transitory as the FED has said. Much of it is due to supply line issues, and in some cases, not enough workers available to do the job of getting all of the materials.

I’m also still adding to my VBILX position in my ROTH IRA. This is an intermediate bond fund I’ve had for about a year and half now. This is a much safer choice, although it has a yield of over 2%. This is because the quality of bonds it invests in is a bit lower. VBILX is pretty close to a “cash account” like a savings with minimum downside. To reiterate the risk here is the return gets eaten by inflation.

I will end by saying I don’t think bonds like TLT are something you buy and hold forever. I do strongly believe bonds have a place in anyone’s portfolio and I can’t see myself ever getting rid of them.

“You can’t time the market” is a saying commonly reiterated. Yet, by not holding bonds, one is timing the market. They are assuming the insane bull run of the last decade will continue, they are assume bond yields MUST rise. However, we are in uncharted territory as a nation with the FED expanding is balance sheet to unprecedented levels, with valuations of some stocks at insane levels, with demographics and political tensions we haven’t faced before. Who knows what will happen from here? I don’t. That is why I’m choosing to hold bonds regardless if most are speaking out against them.

JUNE PASSIVE INCOME & MY PORTFOLIO

HERE IS MY JUNE BREAKDOWN

  • Adsense $4.96
  • Amazon Affiliate $2.82
  • Skillshare $9.21
  • Digital Products $24.50
  • Patreon $76.81 (Before Taxes)
  • Teachable $9.21
  • Dividends $12.33
  • Dividends in retirement accounts $101.21
  • Swing trading $37.06

TOTAL PASSIVE INCOME (NOT COUNTING RETIREMENT) $197.35

TOTAL PASSIVE COUNTING RETIREMENT DIVIDENDS $298.56

Some notable improvements, last month I had ZERO Digital Products and Amazon Affiliate income. So even though they are small amounts, it is a positive movement. Patreon, like last month, continues to be the outperforming. My swing trades for the month include ROKU and FACEBOOK, both over an 8% return.


My DIVIDEND BREAKDOWN:

Putnam Municipal Income CEF (PMM) $.26

Marten Transport $0.20

Genpact $1.46

HOFT $10.40

In my Traditional IRA:

IEF $.61

SWK $11.04

Kforce $2.20

Cash $0.01


MY PORTFOLIO

The MAIN thing I’m doing is contributing more and more into ITOT (A total market ETF). I am also selling small portions of VALUE/DIVIDEND stocks like Westrock, Medical Properties Trust, and American Eagle Outfitters.

I want to increase my positions in growth stocks like Chewy, Fortinet, Akamai, and Marten Transportation.

I’m also buying small portions of the gold ETF, IAU. I think Gold still has a little bit more to run before another pullback.

QQQ ETF is Fantastic | My Portfolio

The two main ETF’s I’m buying this month are QQQ and ITOT. QQQ is weighted towards the Nasdaq and technology. I think during this Coronavirus crash, weighing heavier towards technology is a wise move. So far, it has paid off quite well.

I just added $400 to my ROTH IRA and $500 to my Traditional IRA. In addition to the above ETF’s, I’m also buying these individual stocks-Universal Forest Products and Chewy. I am up over 25% in Chewy, it is of course a growth stock. Chewy is a company that specializes in pet foot delivery. We use their services and see Chewy boxes all around us via our neighbors each week.

In this video, I discuss these ETF’s and bring you my dividend report SO FAR for the month of June **More Dividends to come!**


So far, my DIVIDENDS are as follows:

Stanley Black & Decker $11.04, IEF $0.61 for a total of $11.65 in my TRADITIONAL IRA

PMM $0.61 in my BROKERAGE. Lots more DIVIDENDS to come in this account!

In my ROTH IRA, VBILX $6.77

I’m FINALLY able to add to my accounts this month, so, I’m looking forward to watching that money grow in the market.

I am currently sitting at 6%; one of my short-term goals is to get my total market ETF’s/Index Funds up to 25%. I also want to continue increasing my position in Chewy, Universal Forest Products, Marten Transports, and Fortinet. I feel strongly that these stocks are going to GROW big over the next few years.

Lastly, I’ll briefly mention my Swing Trade for the month. I am swing trading ROKU. This won’t be a long-term hold for me, I’m simply looking for a 8% gain. I am sitting at 2% right now, holding a bit longer. Update later!

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